Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/2328Z from Region 2685 (S10E85). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 21/2040Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/1325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/1215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3951 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Oct), quiet levels on day two (23 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (24 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Oct 077 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 080/082/084 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 009/010-005/005-012/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/30 Minor Storm 05/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/30 Major-severe storm 25/10/45