Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 19/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 851 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Oct, 22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Oct 076 Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 078/083/083 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 008/010-009/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 25/25/10