Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 18/0315Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/2059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 55588 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Oct, 20 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Oct 073 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 074/078/082 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 006/005-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/35 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/55