SPC Oct 17, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 17 Oct 2017

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Low thunderstorm probabilities will exist along the Pacific Northwest Coast, across the southern Rockies, and over parts of Florida. ...Discussion... Much of the contiguous US will remain convection-free during the day3 period but a few ares may experience isolated thunderstorms. 1) Pacific NW - Strong short-wave trough will move inland along the Pacific NW Coast during the latter half of the period. While weak mid-level buoyancy may contribute to shallow elevated convection within the warm conveyor, cooling profiles and surface-based instability may prove adequate for isolated post-frontal thunderstorms near the coast after 18z. 2) Southern Rockies - Gradual moistening is expected across the southern Rockies during the day2-3 time frame as higher PW air mass advances north into NM. Boundary-layer heating should contribute to destabilization during the afternoon hours and a weak mid-level short-wave trough is expected to aid at least isolated thunderstorm development. 3) Florida - Easterly low-level flow (around 2k deep) will continue across the FL Peninsula into the day3 period as strong surface high will hold across the eastern US. Weak buoyancy, due to poor lapse rates, should allow convection to focus near the eastern/southern peninsula. While much of this activity will remain lightning-free, a few of the stronger updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow.. 10/17/2017 Read more



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