Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 15/2354Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/0318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/0316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36944 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 Oct, 19 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (18 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Oct 071 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 070/070/072 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 021/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/010-011/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor Storm 05/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 30/45/45