Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 758 km/s at 14/0736Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/0033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/0316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32632 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (15 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Oct 069 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 026/050 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 024/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 015/020-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 45/35/30