Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 691 km/s at 13/1759Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/1543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/1514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4986 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (14 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Oct 070 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 020/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 028/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 022/035-015/020-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor Storm 40/15/10 Major-severe storm 15/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 75/45/35