SPC Oct 13, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 13 Oct 01:55

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KS TO SOUTHEAST IA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development with a threat for isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible from the southern High Plains into the Midwest Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... Strong short-wave trough is expected to progress across the northern/central Rockies into the High Plains by 15/00z as 500mb flow increases downstream across NE/IA/southern MN. While this feature will lag the delineated severe risk corridor somewhat, a synoptic front should stall across the central Plains/mid MS Valley region Friday and will serve as the focus for convection by mid-late afternoon Saturday. Latest short-range guidance suggests a narrow zone of strong boundary-layer heating will be noted from the TX Panhandle northeast across south-central KS into northern MO and southeast IA. Forecast soundings suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures around 22-23z and frontal ascent should encourage thunderstorm development along the wind shift, especially by early evening as the front begins to surge southeast. High PW values, in excess of 1.5", will not prove conducive for steep mid-level lapse rates but low-level heating is expected to aid buoyancy and a robust squall line should evolve within a strongly sheared environment. Wind damage and some hail are the primary threats, especially across KS/MO/southeast IA as adequate buoyancy will extend into this region where large-scale forcing for ascent will be greatest. While short-wave trough will only glance the southern High Plains, some severe threat should extend into the TX Panhandle where low-level lapse rates will be steeper than northern latitudes. ..Darrow.. 10/13/2017 Read more



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