SPC Oct 12, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 12 Oct 2017

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Discussion... While mid/upper subtropical ridging remains prominent and centered over the central Gulf Coast states, models indicate that a pair of short wave impulses, within larger scale troughing now inland of the Pacific coast, will gradually consolidate while progressing eastward and northeastward into and through the central Canadian provinces during this period. As they do, associated forcing for ascent is forecast to support significant cyclogenesis, particularly late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of northern Manitoba into the vicinity of southwestern Hudson Bay. Despite the strength of this evolving system, its higher latitude nature, coupled with the current lack of better low-level moisture to the north of the immediate Gulf Coast region, appear likely to minimize any associated convective potential. Models do suggest that modest moistening is possible ahead a trailing, southeastward advancing cold front, as far north as the central Plains/mid to lower Missouri Valley region by 12Z Friday, but destabilization still appears unlikely to become supportive of an appreciable risk for thunderstorms through at least this period. It is possible that another short wave trough digging inland of the Pacific Northwest coast this afternoon could contribute to destabilization sufficient for scattered weak thunderstorm development to the west of the Cascades. Otherwise, potential for sustained thunderstorm development may largely remain focused within a corridor of residual high moisture content, ahead of a backdoor cold front advancing southward through the southern Mid Atlantic Coast region, and perhaps within increasing boundary layer moisture across the Florida Peninsula, associated with a wave in the easterlies. This is expected to be mostly diurnal in nature, and scattered in coverage at its peak. ..Kerr/Leitman.. 10/12/2017 Read more



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