Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 08/1501Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0244Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 227 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Oct 077 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 076/074/074 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 006/005-007/008-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/35 Minor Storm 01/05/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/15 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 15/25/20 Major-severe storm 10/25/65