Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 06/2101Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1434Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 273 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Oct, 09 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Oct 080 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/25 Major-severe storm 15/10/25