Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 06/1231Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/0050Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/2338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3718 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Oct, 08 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Oct 084 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 082/080/078 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 009/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 008/010-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 45/45/20