Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/1341Z from Region 2683 (N13W58). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 05/2041Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5863 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Oct 085 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 085/082/080 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/ 009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 005/005-008/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/30 Minor Storm 05/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/45/45