Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 04/0043Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8352 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Oct, 06 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Oct 087 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 087/087/085 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor Storm 01/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 15/20/45