Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 03/0231Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/0500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16100 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Oct 086 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 086/086/086 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/15/20