Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 30/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/0529Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/0529Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14651 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Oct 086 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 086/086/084 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/10/10