Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 30/0236Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1436Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 52054 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Oct, 02 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Sep 089 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 089/089/087 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 011/014-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/15 Minor Storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/40/25