Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 715 km/s at 28/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38411 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (30 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Sep 090 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 041/044 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 012/016-011/014-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor Storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/50/40