SPC Sep 26, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 26 Sep 2017

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds are possible this afternoon and evening from southwest Texas through southeast New Mexico. ...Southwest Texas through southeast New Mexico... Cold front will settle south through the southern High Plains reaching far west TX by early evening. East-southeasterly near-surface winds in the pre-frontal warm sector will advect richer low-level moisture westward within the upslope flow regime, with MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg likely as the boundary layer warms. Potential exists for deeper forcing accompanying vorticity maxima rotating through base of a synoptic upper trough to affect this region today. Storms should redevelop over the higher terrain of southeast NM and far southwest TX as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Easterly low-level winds veering to southwesterly and increasing to 35 kt at 500 mb should result in sufficient effective bulk shear for a few supercells capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts through early evening. ..Dial/Karstens.. 09/26/2017 Read more



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