Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 23/2120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/1836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12883 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Sep 087 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 014/016-008/008-016/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/35 Minor Storm 15/05/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/25/65