Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 21/2217Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36942 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Sep 078 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 007/008-009/012-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/30 Minor Storm 05/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/40/50