SPC Sep 22, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 22 Sep 2017

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and storms are expected in the southern and central High Plains, although any severe threat should be sparse. ...Synopsis... A persistent western trough/eastern ridge pattern should remain in place across the CONUS, although some slow eastward progress of the trough axis will be noted as upper ridging builds into the Pacific Northwest from the northeastern Pacific. Sustained, meridionally oriented mid/upper flow will remain across the High Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a weak low over western Kansas should remain nearly stationary. A front northeast of this low (into western Wisconsin) should slowly migrate southward with time, while a weak lee trough remains located in portions of the Texas South Plains and eastern New Mexico. Each of these surface boundaries will separate modified tropical air (in the Plains) from drier, cooler air to the north and west, while providing foci for an arc of storms that will extend from portions of the Texas South Plains into western/central Kansas and northward into southern Minnesota. Mid-level lapse rates should be relatively modest along the extent of this arc of convection, resulting in only weak to moderate destabilization (strongest in the Texas South Plains). This should keep any threat of damaging wind gusts relatively sparse and below Marginal/5% thresholds. ..Cook.. 09/22/2017 Read more



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