Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 8

By Newsroom America Feeds at 13 Sep 2017

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131433 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The cloud pattern has not become any better organized since yesterday and consists of a low-level center in between two shapeless blobs of deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, but the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. There are no obvious reasons for why the cyclone will not intensify. The shear is forecast to decrease in a couple of days and the ocean is warm. On this basis, little change is anticipated during the next 24 to 36 hours, and some slight strengthening is forecast thereafter. The depression still has the opportunity to become a tropical storm. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt. The depression is embedded within light easterly flow south of a subtropical ridge. Global models indicate that steering currents will remain weak, and this flow will only provide a very slow westward motion through the next 5 days. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, but the envelope broadens by the end of the forecast period, implying less confidence in 4 and 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 15.0N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 15.3N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 15.5N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 15.5N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 15.3N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila


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