Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 736 km/s at 12/1100Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 12/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 920 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (15 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Aug 070 Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 070/068/068 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 010/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/25/20