SPC Aug 11, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 11 Aug 2017

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00z medium-range model guidance is in general agreement regarding the large-scale pattern across the Contiguous US. High PW air mass will persist across the southern third of the country with seasonally moist corridor expected to hold across the plains. Several short-wave troughs will undoubtedly progress across the US and convective feed-back should also contribute to thunderstorm clusters models are unable to resolve. While organized severe threat currently appears low next week, there is some concern for potential robust convection across the northern High Plains during the day4-5 period. Most model guidance agrees a short-wave trough will migrate across the northern inter-mountain region toward the High Plains. Although differences do exist regarding the timing and placement of this feature, strong convection could develop near the MT/ND border Monday evening. At this time too much uncertainty exists to warrant 15% severe probs. Elsewhere, isolated strong storms could be noted each afternoon within aforementioned high PW air mass across the southern US but day-to-day uncertainty regarding convective processes and relatively weak shear do not support severe probs. Read more



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