Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 09/1132Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1155Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7825 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Aug 072 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 005/005-006/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/30 Minor Storm 01/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 15/30/45