Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug) and expected to be very low on day three (10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 06/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11301 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Aug 073 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 007/008-007/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 35/20/15