Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 794 km/s at 05/1216Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/2239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6433 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (06 Aug, 08 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Aug 074 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 019/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 011/012-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/30 Minor Storm 10/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 45/25/40