SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 17 Apr 02:07

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA... ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous, life-threatening fire weather conditions are expected today and tonight across the central/southern Plains and adjacent Rockies*** A progressive mid-level trough will migrate from the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains throughout the day, with a well-timed mid-level jet at the base of the trough overspreading dry areas of the Rockies and Plains during peak heating hours. Meanwhile at the surface, a low and trailing trough will deepen and migrate eastward from eastern Colorado into western Kansas throughout the day. The combination of the 60-80 kt mid-level flow, steepening surface pressure gradient, and very hot/dry conditions will result in widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions from eastern Arizona eastward to the central Plains. ...Eastern Arizona eastward to central Kansas/Oklahoma... Critical conditions will be in place as early as 12-15Z across central New Mexico due to very poor overnight recovery, critically low RH values, and 20 mph westerly surface flow. Insolation/surface warming will aid in development of widespread extremely critical conditions (30+ mph surface flow and 3-10% RH values) as early as mid-morning in much of New Mexico, developing rapidly eastward as far as western Oklahoma over the course of the afternoon and early evening. The strongest surface flow will exist beneath the mid-level jet stream from northern/central New Mexico east-northeastward into southwestern Kansas behind the surface trough/dryline during peak heating hours, with wind gusts as high as 70 mph possible. Given dry fuels and ongoing drought, the stage will be set for fast-moving fires exhibiting extreme behavior. Critical conditions should persist through at least 06Z from southeastern New Mexico northeastward toward central Kansas as the surface low and trailing trough migrate eastward. Furthermore, a cold front will traverse portions of the region in the early evening, shifting surface winds to northwesterly and potentially complicating any ongoing fire suppression efforts. ..Cook.. 04/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html

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