SPC Apr 17, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 17 Apr 03:56

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong upper trough is expected to progress across the southwestern US into the southern Rockies by the end of day4 period. This feature is a bit slower and farther south than earlier guidance suggested and this will influence the northward extent of appreciable air mass recovery/destabilization. Given the low-latitude of this trough it appears the greatest buoyancy will be confined to southwestern/south-central portions of TX. Have adjusted 15% severe probs to account for this evolution Friday. Strong mid-level flow will spread into central TX during the day5 period and a considerable amount of convection will likely evolve across the TX/OK region Friday/Saturday. Convective processes may suppress destabilization across north-central TX and severe probabilities will reflect that portion of TX where greater buoyancy is expected. Beyond day5, mid-level trough is forecast to eject toward the FL Peninsula early next week. Too much uncertainty exists regarding air mass recovery along the Gulf Coast to warrant severe probs across this region. Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

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