SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance initially located across the High Plains at the beginning of the forecast period will continue to migrate eastward throughout the day. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will persist on the southern end of this disturbance from eastern Colorado through Illinois and east from there. At the surface, a dry post-frontal airmass will overspread much of the central Plains, with broad areas of northwesterly surface flow and lowered RH during the afternoon resulting in widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Eastern Colorado eastward through Kansas and southward into west-central Texas... Aforementioned northwesterly flow will strengthen during the day in response to heating/mixing, with speeds around 20-30 mph across much of Kansas weakening to around 10-15 mph from southwestern Oklahoma into west-central Texas. Meanwhile, RH will fall during the afternoon in response to surface heating, with sub-15% values becoming common from southwestern Kansas southward through much of west-central Texas. Higher values will exist north and east of these areas. A broad elevated area has been highlighted for this outlook with the expectation that the aforementioned dry conditions will combine with widespread dry fuels in the area to promote fire spread. Additionally, a small critical area has been introduced from southwestern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma where the greatest overlap of low RH and 20+ mph surface flow will exist. These winds may slacken before 00Z, however, as the surface pressure gradient should gradually weaken throughout the day in response to a departing area of low pressure near the Ohio Valley. ..Cook.. 04/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html