SPC Apr 16, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 16 Apr 13:25

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Much of the U.S. is expected to remain under the influence of one generally zonal branch of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. Several vigorous short wave troughs are embedded within this regime and appear likely to remain progressive through at least this period. This includes one wave, and its associated deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone, which are forecast to advance across the remainder of the Northeast, and east of the middle and southern Atlantic coastal areas. Relatively close on this heels of this lead system, another perturbation is forecast to accelerate from the eastern Great Basin, at the outset of the period, through the lower/middle Missouri Valley by 12Z Wednesday, as an upstream wave approaches the Pacific Coast. Significant surface cyclogenesis still appears possible across parts of the central high Plains during the day Tuesday, before it weakens some while migrating into and through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday night. In the wake of the lead cyclone, and its associated cold front, moisture return to the evolving warm sector appears likely to remain quite modest, and what low-level moistening that does take place likely will remain capped beneath warm elevated mixed layer air. However, forcing for ascent and cooling aloft within the left exit region of the jet streak accompanying the mid-level wave may contribute to sufficient lower/mid tropospheric destabilization to support some thunderstorm development across Iowa and adjacent portions of surrounding states by late Tuesday night. This may be preceded by some risk for widely scattered thunderstorm activity across parts of the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies into portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, due to the generally weak nature of the destabilization currently forecast, any potential for severe wind gusts and hail currently appears negligible. ..Kerr.. 04/16/2018 Read more



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