SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 16 Apr 14:13

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... Dangerous fire-weather conditions are still expected across a large portion of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains on Tuesday. Very dry fuels and boundary-layer conditions, combined with strong winds, will significantly increase the potential for rapid fire spread and extreme behavior through much of the day, especially from eastern New Mexico, through the Panhandles, and into southwest Kansas and western Oklahoma. Moreover, a cold front passage and associated wind shift (from west/southwest to northwest) during the afternoon/evening will complicate firefighting efforts, as the approximate southeastern flank of any initial large fires may become rather expansive fire fronts later in the day. The ongoing highlighted areas remain generally unchanged. The extreme and critical areas were expanded slightly eastward across parts of Texas and Oklahoma, primarily to account for recent guidance and the very dry nature of fuels. ..Picca.. 04/16/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/ ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous, life-threatening fire weather conditions are likely on Tuesday*** A progressive mid-level trough will migrate through the Intermountain West early on D2/Tue and reach the Rockies by mid-day. At the base of this trough, a well-timed speed max will eject across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains in conjunction with peak heating hours. At the surface, a lee cyclone and trailing trough will deepen from central Kansas southward toward the Big Bend area of Texas, with very warm/dry airmass extending from the trough/dryline westward through the Lower Colorado River Valley. This synoptic pattern will result in widespread areas of higher-end fire weather conditions, with the potential for large, fast-moving, and life-threatening fire activity. ...Southern Rockies eastward into the southern/central Plains... Critical conditions are expected to be ongoing very early in the forecast period (12-15Z across central New Mexico and vicinity) in response to sustained 15-25 mph westerly surface flow and very poor overnight recovery. This area will expand dramatically throughout the day as insolation/vertical mixing and a favorable surface pressure gradient result in widespread areas of 30+ mph west-southwesterly surface flow - especially within the extremely critical delineation. Gusts in these areas may exceed 60 mph - especially in central/northern New Mexico into south-central Colorado beneath the mid-level speed max. Furthermore, the antecedent airmass will be very dry across the region, with RH values falling to as low as 3-10% in point forecast soundings within the extremely critical area as temperatures rise into the 80s and 90s F (warmest nearer the dryline/surface trough). Surrounding the extremely critical delineation, somewhat weaker surface winds and higher RH values will exist during peak heating hours. Some fire weather threat will likely exist well into the evening and overnight given poor recovery and continued gusty surface winds. This threat should also translate eastward into central Oklahoma/Kansas through 06Z as drier air advects eastward behind the progressive surface low and trailing trough. Lastly, surface winds should gradually veer to northwesterly through the evening, potentially complicating any ongoing fire suppression efforts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more



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