SPC Apr 16, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 15 Apr 20:48

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A line of severe thunderstorms will continue across eastern Virginia, the Delmarva, and eastern North Carolina this evening with damaging winds and few tornadoes possible. A few strong storms are also expected across southern Florida as well. ...Discussion... A negative-tilt upper trough will continue to pivot northeastward across the Mid Atlantic with the main upper low over the Midwest and a secondary low over eastern OH near an occluded front. A surface low will drift northeastward across VA, with a cold front extending south and clearing the Carolinas by early Monday morning. Meanwhile, a warm front will eventually lift north across eastern MD and DE allowing for marginally unstable air into that region. Elsewhere, the southern extension of the cold front currently exists over the central FL Peninsula, also moving offshore by early Monday morning. ...Mid Atlantic... 00Z soundings depict very strong southerly flow aloft creating long hodographs, with sufficient veering of the low-level winds with height resulting in effective SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2. While storms are currently oriented parallel to the deep-layer shear vectors, QLCS structures will remain possible capable of damaging wind or tornadoes as the eastward progression of this line is slow. The line will likely accelerate during the evening as the upper trough pivots northeast. Cold air currently exists north of the stationary front from northern VA into the Delmarva, but some northward progression is expected later tonight. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 274. ...Southern FL... A cluster of storms is currently affecting eastern South FL, and may post a localized damaging wind threat for the next few hours. Additional activity is not expected behind these storms as the air mass stabilizes from outflow, and drier air works in from the west. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2018 Read more



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