SPC MD 275

By Newsroom America Feeds at 15 Apr 21:08

MD 0275 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NC...SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018 Areas affected...Eastern NC...Southeast VA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 160107Z - 160230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored for a Tornado Watch downstream of the ongoing convective line. DISCUSSION...Current storm tracks suggest the ongoing convective line will reach the edge of Tornado Watch 53 or 54 around 0230Z. The southern portion of the line has shown a modest increase in forward progression so there is some potential that the increased forward speed brings the line to the edge of Tornado Watch 53 before 0230Z. Continued theta-e advection is expected to offset nocturnal stabilization somewhat with much of the region remaining weakly unstable. At the same time, low-level wind fields will strengthen, enlarging hodographs and creating a kinematic environment that is very supportive of low-level rotation. There is some potential for the convective line to be outflow dominant by the time it reaches eastern NC/southeast VA but overall convective evolution remains uncertain. However, given the favorable kinematic fields, trends will be monitored closely and a downstream tornado watch will likely be needed soon. ..Mosier/Hart.. 04/16/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34577765 34867788 35417792 37147729 37177606 36167603 34917658 34537698 34507741 34577765 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0275.html

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