Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

By Newsroom America Feeds at 15 Apr 18:01

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 15/2026Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/2342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8310 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Apr 071 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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