SPC MD 271

By Newsroom America Feeds at 15 Apr 16:43

MD 0271 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 51... FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018 Areas affected...the southern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 51... Valid 152042Z - 152145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado watch 51 will expire at 22Z. A threat for mainly isolated damaging wind will linger over the southern half of the peninsula into the evening, but it is uncertain at this time whether the threat will be sufficient for another WW. DISCUSSION...Late this afternoon thunderstorms associated with a convergence zone along the east coast are in the process of moving offshore. Additional storms have moved inland along the west coast and extend southward into the Gulf just west of the Keys. These storms will continue east into the evening and may pose a modest threat for mostly isolated damaging wind. The downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. However mid-level lapse rates are very weak due to warm temperatures aloft. Moreover, tendency will be for low-level winds to continue to veer as a more significant shortwave trough passes well north of this region. While vertical wind and shear profiles should undergo some increase with 35-40 kt bulk shear supportive of organized storms, the marginal nature of the thermodynamic environment lowers confidence in a more robust severe threat. As as result any additional WW issuance for southern FL will depend on convective trends. ..Dial.. 04/15/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 25458098 25968140 26188168 26778189 27788180 27928113 27578056 26618030 25698060 25458098 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0271.html

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