SPC Apr 15, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 15 Apr 12:55

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA...SC...NC INTO VA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FL TO VA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States through tonight. Damaging winds and tornadoes are most likely from the Savannah Valley into Virginia this afternoon and early evening. ...North Florida to the Delmarva vicinity... The base of a prominent upper trough centered over the Midwest will continue to steadily spread northeastward over the Tennessee Valley toward the central/southern Appalachians with ample downstream height falls and a considerable strengthening of south-southwesterly winds through a deep layer. Persistent cloud cover and relatively weak mid-level level lapse rates will hinder robust destabilization, but this will be compensated by an increasingly moist air mass in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer/low-level shear. At midday, a nearly continuous squall line continues to intensify across east Georgia into north Florida while other bands of storms have more recently increased across the western Carolinas. Largely unidirectional/boundary-parallel wind profiles will initially limit the eastward progression of the convective bands, but northeastward-racing bowing segments are likely to evolve over time with some net east/northeastward acceleration. Damaging winds will likely be the most common impact, but some tornadoes can be expected given the degree of low-level SRH coincident with a moist environment. At least some severe risk may develop into the Delmarva vicinity late tonight within a weakly unstable/highly sheared environment. ...Central/South Florida... While the region will be influenced by more modest mid-level height falls and weaker deep-layer shear, an approaching squall line over the Gulf of Mexico will pose some severe risk while additional development could occur via the east-coast sea breeze. Damaging winds will exist along with the possibility of a tornado. ...Ohio Valley... Modest moisture and minimal buoyancy may be sufficient for a few strong updrafts/downdrafts capable of localized severe in relatively close proximity to the surface low track. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 04/15/2018 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html

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