SPC Apr 15, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 15 Apr 03:52

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large-scale pattern continues to suggest substantial drying at low latitudes early this week due to strong frontal penetration over the Gulf of Mexico. Late-evening guidance suggest moisture/instability ahead of mid-week trough will be inadequate for organized severe storms. However, a strong upper trough should eject across the southwestern US into the southern Rockies Friday. Models are in general agreement with this feature in that large-scale ascent/stronger flow aloft will affect the southern High Plains region day6. Instability is expected to increase across west TX as southerly LLJ increases along the northwestern plume of moisture surge. It appears organized deep convection will develop along a pronounced dry line and within a zone of low-level warm advection. Strongly sheared storms support severe probabilities. Beyond day6...considerable amount of convective disruption is likely across TX if large-scale forcing overspreads the southern Plains as currently depicted by ECMWF/GFS/Canadian/UKMET. While some severe threat may be noted next weekend too much uncertainty exists to include severe probs during the day7-8 time period. Read more



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