Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 13/2125Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/1909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20707 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Apr 070 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10