Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr, 16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 12/2314Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/1836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/0028Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25451 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Apr 070 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/10/10