Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 11/0817Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10905 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (12 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Apr 068 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 015/018-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/40 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/50/50