Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s at 10/1739Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/0225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1937 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Apr), unsettled to active levels on day two (12 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Apr 069 Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 018/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 015/020-015/018-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/40 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/50/50