Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 17/0328Z from Region 2665 (S06W86). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (18 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day two (19 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds averaged around 540 km/s. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/2211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 17/1359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12226 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (18 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul Class M 20/05/01 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 20/05/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jul 086 Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 085/075/075 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 029/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 025/037 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 011/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/30/30