Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 30/0804Z from Region 2703 (S08E60). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 454 km/s at 30/0322Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/1654Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14850 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Mar 069 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/15/10