Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 16/0235Z from Region 2665 (S06W70). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 643 km/s at 16/2037Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 16/0836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -23 nT at 16/1040Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 15/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (17 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (18 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jul). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (19 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul Class M 30/30/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 30/30/25 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jul 087 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 085/080/074 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 027/043 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 020/030-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/20 Minor Storm 35/15/05 Major-severe storm 20/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 15/30/25 Major-severe storm 80/50/30