Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 15/1936Z from Region 2665 (S05W57). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 14/2231Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 14/2320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 723 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (16 Jul), active to major storm levels on day two (17 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (18 Jul). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 55/30/30 PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Jul 092 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 092/092/090 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 019/035-028/045-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/35 Minor Storm 35/35/15 Major-severe storm 20/25/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 20/15/30 Major-severe storm 75/79/50