SPC MD 186

By Newsroom America Feeds at 28 Mar 2018

MD 0186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH TEXAS AREA
Mesoscale Discussion 0186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Areas affected...south Texas area Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281409Z - 281615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms will pose a risk for mainly large hail through around 16Z across south TX including the San Antonio area. Coverage of severe storms is expected to remain too sparse for a WW. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms including a supercell have developed across south TX within zone of low-level convergence and isentropic ascent north of an outflow boundary. Storm just southwest of San-Antonio moving northeast is likely producing large hail based on MESH data. Storms are elevated north of an outflow boundary. However, VWP data indicates effective bulk shear of 50+ kt supportive of mid-level updraft rotation, which in addition to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) will support a large hail threat next couple hours. ..Dial/Edwards.. 03/28/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29719813 29199790 28719862 28469946 28679972 29089950 29609900 29719813 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0186.html

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