Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 27/0829Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/0259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/0258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 42354 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Mar 068 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 006/005-013/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/30 Minor Storm 01/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 10/40/35