SPC Mar 27, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 27 Mar 2018

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX AND SOUTHERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible today into tonight across parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the Arklatex and the southern Ozarks. ...Southern Plains/Arklatex... Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across the southern Plains as several perturbations move northeastward across the region. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western Texas Hill Country extending northeastward across north Texas into southeastern Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms should be ongoing along the front this morning with this convection gradually spreading eastward during the day. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from eastern parts of the Texas Hill Country eastward into east Texas where moderate instability should develop by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm across the moist sector, new surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along outflow boundaries ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon. This convection should gradually move eastward across central and northeast Texas during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. Other more isolated thunderstorms may develop across southwest Texas where the strongest instability is forecast to be in place. Some of the storms ahead of the front will likely become organized due to strong deep-layer shear. Rotating storms will have the best potential to produce large hail and isolated wind damage. Cells that develop into short line segments in areas where low-level lapse rates become steep may also produce wind damage. ...West Texas/Far Southeast New Mexico... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the southern Rockies today with the southern periphery of the system across northwest Mexico. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the Texas Hill Country today as winds remained backed to the east across west Texas. In response, a tongue of low-level moisture is forecast to extend west-northwestward across west Texas into far southeast New Mexico where surface dewpoints may reach the lower 50s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of moderate instability may develop across parts of west Texas. Convection is most likely to initiate on the northern edge of the stronger instability near or just to the west of Lubbock this afternoon. Lapse rates will be quite steep suggesting that hail will be possible as cells intensify during the late afternoon. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 03/27/2018 Read more



[D] [Digg] [FB] [R] [SU] [Tweet] [G]